2019 general elections: 10 reasons why Narendra Modi may not return as Prime Minister
The party's tally in the crucial states will only fall further.
The BJP, which had swept key northern, western and central Indian states in the Modi wave of 2014, has recieved a blow in core states like Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. Clean sweeps cannot be improved upon. The party's tally will only fall further in these states.
The SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh, which gave the BJP 73 seats last time, can spell heavy losses in India's most populous state.
While repeat electoral success requires a divided Opposition, the BJP, under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, has actually brought together an alliance in states like UP and Karnataka.
The more the party's tally falls, the more will allies clamour for a "moderate face" to lead the NDA.
There is a farm crisis in many states. Some steps are being contemplated by the government, but the Congress has scored political points by announcing farm loan waivers.
Demonetisation has hurt employment and incomes. The GST has hurt traders and farmers.
The 2014 victory was the result of floating voters which added to the BJP's tally, but issues like Ram temple and the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill repeatedly appeal to the core Hindutva constituency alone.
The EWS quota has at best sent out mixed signals.
The BJP has lost allies. TDP and AGP have left. The Shiv Sena is angry.
There is palpable Dalit anger against the government, ranging from educational campuses to rural India.