India’s population to surpass China by 2027
Developing countries will face increasing pressures of poverty, lack of access to quality education and proper health care.
India could surpass China by 2027 and become the world’s most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants and will continue to remain in the top position until the end of the century.
The United Nation populations division has estimated that in 2019, India’s population is 1.37 billion and China’s is 1.43 billion. Adding 273 million people by 2050, India will surpass China as the most populated nation. However, previous UN projections have shown various results. India’s population was expected to surpass China’s by 2024 according to a 2017 report and by 2022 according to a 2015 report.
The possible decline
According to an analysis of the data by the Pew Research Center, the world’s population is expected to virtually stop increasing by 2100. The world’s population roughly grew between one and two per cent each year, with the number of people rising from 2.5 billion in 1950 to more than 7.7 billion in 2019. But trends have shown that with a projected annual growth of less than 0.1 per cent, this is a steep decline from current levels.
Between 2020 and 2100, 90 countries are expected to face a reduction in population. By contrast, between 1950 and 2020, only six countries in the world lost population, due to much higher fertility rates and a relatively younger population in past decades.
Between 2020 and 2100, the number of people ages 80 and older is expected to increase from 146 million to 881 million. Contributing factors to the rise in the median age are the increase in life expectancy and falling fertility rates. The declining global fertility rate is projected to fall below the replacement fertility rate -- the number of births per woman needed to maintain a population’s size -- of 2.1 births per woman. The global fertility rate is expected to be 1.9 births per woman by 2100, down from 2.5 in 2019.